America has lost interest, but the rest of the world should not
Csecrecy of a papal conclave with the national rivalries of the Eurovision Song Contest and you have a sense of what will happen on May 29th during the election of the next president of the African Development Bank (f).
This 60-year-old development finance institution, and who runs it, matter more than ever. Cuts in aid will hit Africa especially hard. It is likely to lose at least 30% of the total grant funding coming from abroad, much of which is essential for government operations. President Donald Trump says he is cutting America's sizeable contribution to the f. Private capital is still not filling infrastructure gaps.
Moreover, as the African Union is becoming increasingly ineffective, Africa needs a strong pan-African institution with legitimacy, a clear orientation, and money to unite the region. The African Continental Free Trade Area and other slow-moving initiatives to beef up Africa in global negotiations need champions. The fhas billions of dollars to deploy: for African states that is a lot to fight for. But as the bank's presidential race heats up, the institution that should transcend national rivalries is exposing them.
The main job of the bank's president is to set out the continent's most pressing development needs and oversee the projects to tackle them. It is also to inspire the confidence that encourages partners to contribute more capital, which the bank then borrows against on the market. The outgoing president, Akinwumi Adesina, helped raise the bank's profile, but not enough money to cushion against current shocks.
In 2023 the bank disbursed $6.1bn, less than half the sum raised by the Inter-American Development Bank for a region less than half as populous. Africa remains the only region where the World Bank is still a bigger project backer than the regional development bank designed primarily for that purpose. Currently too little capital is spread too thinly across many projects that the bank is forced to pick up because African governments often neglect them.
On priorities, little separates the five candidates. All call for job creation, interconnected infrastructure and intra-Africa trade. They all big up their connections and expertise. Zambia's Samuel Maimbo, coming from the World Bank, stands out for his global experience and has bold plans for tackling the continent's stubborn trade obstacles. He is also determined to woo back the Americans by proving Africa's worth. Mauritania's Sidi Ould Tah has the bonus of coming from the Arab Bank, given the growing appetite for new partners, especially in the Middle East.
They may all claim to want more intra-Africa collaboration but the divisiveness of the race, even within subregions, shows how hard it is to build a continental consensus. South Africa, with one of the biggest vote shares has its own runner, Swazi Tshabalala, instead of joining the rest of the southern bloc to back Mr Maimbo. Ms Tshabalala is the only woman on the ballot and has served as the bank's vice-president. France appears to be backing Mr Tah from Mauritania. This means that Senegal, whose relationship with France is fractious, has put forward its own candidate, a former economic minister, Amadou Hott. He is backed by Nigeria, which has the largest vote share in Africa, at 9%. A former finance minister of Chad is running too.
Non-African donors to the bank wield special importance and a combined 41% vote share, complicating the politics even more. Rich non-African economies are key to maintaining the bank's rating. Despite Mr Trump's announcement, that still includes America, which was pivotal in lobbying for Mr Adesina's Rwandan predecessor in 2005. Within the region, votes are proportional to each country's capital contributions. The winning candidate needs at least half of the total vote and also half of the African vote.
Ultimately the race is about politics, not policy. Key states like Egypt and Nigeria are banking on whom they will get the most cash out of (and who will demand the least in return). The bid for the job will be over soon. The bid for more funds will be a longer, harder fight.■
